我国蔬菜出口的影响因素分析——基于面板数据的引力模型

Influencing factors of Chinese vegetable export——Based on panel data gravity model

【目的】分析我国蔬菜出口的主要影响因素,为制定我国蔬菜出口战略提供理论依据。【方法】对我国蔬菜近年来出口贸易的现状和特点进行分析,并采用2003~2叭3年的面板数据构建贸易引力模型,研究我国和出口目的地的国内生产总值（GDP）、地理距离、我国和出口目的地蔬菜产量及APEC成员身份等因素对我国蔬菜出口的影响。【结果】我国蔬菜产量、出口目的地的APEC成员身份、我国和出口目的地的GDP等4个因素与我国蔬菜的出口额呈正相关,其中,蔬菜产量对出口影响程度最大;我国与出口目的地之间的地理距离、出口目的地的蔬菜产量两个因素与我国蔬菜的出口额呈负相关。【建议】为促进我国蔬菜出口贸易的发展,应提高蔬菜生产的规模经济效应,同时改善蔬菜运输与储藏条件,并不断开拓国际市场,促进我国蔬菜产业协调发展。

【Objective】This paper analyzed main factors affecting vegetable export in China in order to provide reference for drawing up vegetable export strategy.【Method】Current status and characteristics of Chinese vegetable export in recent years were studied.Influencing factors such as GDP of China and export destinations,geographic distance,vegetable production of China and export destination,APEC membership were analyzed by establishing trade gravity model using panel data during 2003-2013.【Result】Four factors,namely Chinese vegetable production,export destination,APEC membership and GDP of export destination,were positively correlated with volume of Chinese vegetable export.Chinese vegetable production had the largest effect on it.Geographic distance between China and export destination,vegetable production of export destination were negatively correlated with volume of Chinese vegetable export.【 Suggestion 】 Scale economy effect should be strengthened to promote Chinese vegetable export.Meanwhile,vegetable transportation and storage conditions should be improved and international market expanded in order to fuel coordinated development of vegetable markets in China.