理解中国经济增长:奇迹还是常态——来自权力结构变迁的视角

Understanding China's Economic Growth: Miracle or Normality?——From the Perspective of Power Structure Change

中国经济在过去30多年的时间里保持了高达9%以上的增长速度,其增速之快、维持时间之长、转型难度之高、赶超幅度之大都是人类历史所罕见的,这不能不说是一个奇迹。然而,中国经济在增长的起点、轨迹、主体、直接原因和增长所需的全球市场等方面又具有常态特征,与战后的日本、韩国、新加坡等国相类似,也没什么特异于经济学教科书所揭示的增长规律。而现有的理论,无论是比较优势理论、地方政府竞争理论抑或市场化改革理论,都无法内在逻辑一致地解释中国的经济奇迹和存在的问题。本文的研究表明,权力结构理论才能解释中国解放后的经济成败。而基于权力结构的视角,从增长的源泉来看,中国更无特殊性:解放后到1978年,中国之所以出现诸多问题。

China＇s economy has maintained a growth rate of over 9% in the past 30 years, its growth rate, its maintaining time, its transformation difficulty, and its catching up and surpass other countries are rare in human history, which can＇ t be said to be not a miracle. However, in such aspects of China＇s economy growth as followings： its economic taking-off point, its growth trajectory, the growth body, the direct causes of growth, and the global market needed have normal characteristics,which are similar to the postwar Japan, South Korea, Singapore and other countries, and there are no differences with the growth laws shown in the economics textbooks. But the existing theory, whether the comparative advantage theory, the local government competition theory or the market oriented reform theory, can not inherent logically explain China＇s economic miracle and the existing problem. The research of this paper shows that the power structure theory can explain the economic success or failure of from China＇s liberation. From the perspective of the power structure theory, China has no special nature：from liberation to 1978,power structure imbalance within the planned economy system is the root cause of China＇s failure;but from the reform and opening up, China like other economies that have succeeded are both keeping with a powerful central government, promoting reform and opening-up to the outside world, and releasing a huge economic development and gaining remarkable economic success through adjusting the structure of power. So, the explanation based on the power structure theory can not only reveal the miracle of China＇s economic success, but also answer the questions in China＇s economic growth process, and explain the logic behind the China＇s institutional change.