中国环境污染源的区域差异及其社会经济影响因素——基于339个地级行政单元截面数据的实证分析

Regional disparity of environmental pollution source and its socio-economic influencing factors:Based on the cross-section data of 339 cities at prefecture level or above in China

基于2012年环境污染物排放和社会经济截面数据,选取化学需氧量、二氧化硫及污染源结构指标,定量研究中国339个地级行政单元环境污染源的空间分异和集聚效应,解析环境污染源及排放空间格局的影响因素,并提出污染防控措施与综合治理建议。结果表明:1环境污染源结构区域差异显著,水环境污染源以农业源主导型、城镇生活源主导型、城镇生活和农业源复合型为主,三者比重分别为35.40%、33.92%和25.66%,农业源主导型排放强度最高,主要分布于华北和东北地区;大气环境污染源以工业源绝对主导型为主,其比重为74.63%,分布于除青藏高原区的广大区域。2农业源主导使水污染物集聚式排放加剧,工业源主导则促进了大气污染物集聚式排放,特别在环渤海及其经济腹地区域,污染源结构强化了污染物排放的空间集聚效应。3人口规模、城镇化水平和经济增长速度是污染物排放的主要驱动因素,其中以人口规模影响最为显著;经济发展水平在区域模型中呈现不同的影响效应,对工业源主导型区域的大气污染物排放呈正向影响,而对城镇生活源主导型区域的水体污染物排放具有抑制作用;工业化程度对工业源绝对主导型区域的大气污染物排放正向影响显著。

Based on the cross- section data of pollutant discharge and socio- economic development in 2012, by using the indicators of total discharge of COD and SO2 and various sources, the spatial differentiation and agglomeration effects of pollutant discharge are measured quantitatively in 339 cities at prefecture level or above in China. Meanwhile, the socio- economic drivers of environmental pollution are estimated through the econometric model, and some suggestions are put forward to reduce and control pollutant discharge. The results show that：（1） The regional differences of the structure of pollutant source are of great significance in China. Specifically, the types of water pollutant sources are mainly included in the region dominated by agricultural source, the region dominated by urban domestic source,and in the region jointly dominated by agricultural and urban domestic source, with the proportions of these regions being 35.40%, 33.92% and 25.66%, respectively. Among them, the discharge intensity of water pollutant is the highest in the region dominated by agricultural source, which are mainly located in North and Northeast China. Meanwhile, the types of air pollutant sources in China are mostly involved in the region absolutely dominated by industrial source, which accounts for 74.63% and is distributed in the vast area of China in addition to the Qinghai- Tibet Plateau.（2） Single and bivariate LISA cluster maps of total discharge and various sources indicate that the agricultural source makes contribution to the spatial agglomeration of high intensity discharge of water pollutants, while the industrial source leads to the concentrated discharge of air pollutants. Especially, in the Bohai Rim region and its economic hinterland, the structure of pollutant sources strengthens the agglomeration effects of pollutant discharge intensity.（3） By means of OLS estimation for nationwide regression model,it is demonstrated that population size, urbanization rate and economic growth are the main driving factors of environmental pollution, and population size is the key factor in China.Moreover, in terms of regression models of regional types, the economic development level makes different contributions to pollutant discharge in various regions, which shows a positive effect on the air pollutant discharge in the region dominated by industrial source, while shows a negative effect on the water pollutant discharge in the region dominated by urban domestic source. In addition, the degree of industrialization has positive influence on the air pollutant discharge in the region absolutely dominated by industrial source.