把握人口“后黄金时代”机遇期 提速经济转型升级

To grasp the opportunity of the “post-golden age” of population to speed up the economic transformation and upgrade

实践和预测表明,1990—2030年我国人口从属比处在＂黄金时代＂。2010年我国15~64岁劳动年龄人口占比上升到0.75峰值、从属比下降到0.34最低值,标志着人口年龄结构变动＂前黄金时代＂的终结和＂后黄金时代＂的开启。＂后黄金时代＂提供的人口盈利、人口红利还有20年左右的不断衰减期,其对社会经济发展产生的影响主要有：人口盈利、人口红利衰减导致经济步入新常态,必不可免地由高速转入中高速增长;劳动年龄人口占比和绝对数量的持续衰减,就业压力的逐步减轻,为经济转方式、调结构提供了难得的机遇,经济转型升级得以摆上议事日程优先位置,并加快发展的步伐。

Practice and prediction show that the population dependency ratio of China between 1990 and 2030 has been at the 'golden age'.In 2010,the ratio of China's working age population aged 15-64 over the total population reached 0.75 peak while dependency ratio decreased to 0.34 minimum,marking the end of the 'pre-golden age'and the beginning of 'post-golden age'.The demographic dividend and profit provided by the'post-golden age' of the population has about 20 years of continuous attenuation period,having major impacts on the social and economic development:the decrease of demographic dividend and profit induced economic growth to the new normal,inevitably from high rate into the medium-high rate;the continuous attenuation of labor- age population proportion and absolute number and the reduced employment pressure provided a rare opportunity for economic transformation and structural adjustment;the economic upgrading being put on the priority position of the schedule means the hope for promotion.