“丝绸之路”经济带建设背景下中国与俄罗斯农产品贸易发展研究

China and Russia's agricultural trade development research under the background of the Silk Roads

在中国大力推进"丝绸之路"经济带建设背景下,中国与俄罗斯农产品贸易面临新的历史机遇。本文利用UN Comtrade中中国与俄罗斯1995—2014年农产品贸易HS92两位编码数据,采用产品出口相似性指数、显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数,从竞争性、互补性两个方面对中国与俄罗斯农产品贸易发展现状进行探讨。结果显示,俄罗斯农产品出口与中国农产品进口存在较强的互补性,并且其互补性指数大于中国农产品出口与俄罗斯农产品进口互补性指数。中国与俄罗斯在较多的农产品上表现出紧密的贸易关系,存在较强的互补性,但是部分有竞争优势的农产品贸易关系并不紧密,两国在农产品贸易上具有较大的发展潜力。中国应该把握"丝绸之路"经济带建设机遇,加强两国农产品贸易合作。

This paper uses the HS92two-digit code data in UN Comtrade database of agricultural products trade between Russia and China from 1995 to 2014and employs product export similarity index,revealed comparative advantage index,trade complementary index to analyze the situation of agricultural trade between Russia and China from the perspective of competitiveness,complementarity and growth potential.Results show that there is a relatively strong complementarity between the export of Russia's agricultural products and the import of China's agricultural products and their complementarity index is larger than that between the import of Russia's agricultural products and the export of China's agricultural products.China has a tight trade relation with Russia in many agricultural products and the complementarity is strong while part of the preponderant agricultural product trade relations are not tight.China and Russia has great development potential in agricultural trade.