基于MIMIC模型的地下金融治理研究

Study on the Underground Finance Management based on the MIMIC Model

长期以来,不规范化和隐藏操作的地下金融发展势头迅速,极大地影响了我国金融市场的稳定和政府管束的难度。文章利用MIMIC模型,通过分析面板数据估算了中国地下金融的发展规模,结果发现,从全国范围看,我国东部沿海、华北中部等经济较发达地区的地下金融发展较快,从而验证了地下金融与经济发展之间的相关性。同时,文章结合地下金融治理与水治理的契合性,分别探究了地下金融在宏观与微观两方面对市场经济的影响,创新性地把治水方略中"堵""疏"结合的理念引入到对地下金融的监管。对地下金融采取简单粗暴的打击方式是不可取的,应该通过建立相应的法规加以引导规范,形成正规金融与地下金融互相促进的双赢局面。

The development of undergrou nd finance, with the non-normative and concealment features in China, is thriving in recent years. There are increasing difficulties of financial stable and government regulation. The MIMIC model is used to analyze the panel data, and then estimate the size of the underground financial development in China. The conclusion is that where the economy better developed, the relatively larger size of the underground financial development would have, such as eastern coastal areas, central north and other areas in China. The results verify the correlation between financial underground and economic development. The reasons for development of underground financial and the influences to national economy are analyzed with the macroscopic and microscopic respects.Combined financial management with underground water management agreement, the philosophy flood supervision to supervision of underground finance is introduced innovatively. It is not wise to deal the underground finance rudely with special features. So, the corresponding laws and regulations should be established to guide and standardize the situations, then the situation of formal finance and underground finance that promotes each other can be formed.