五年规划量化指标中期评估方法

The Measure Methods of Metaphase Quantitative Indicators of Five-year Plan

从"十五"规划开始,我国的五年规划都要进行中期评估。其中数量化指标的进度评估由于可以从直观和客观角度反映规划完成情况,受到社会各界的重视。文章致力于研究其中的难点问题。首先回顾了我国五年规划指标体系的变迁,提出了中期评估工作应当关注的重点内容,并基于研究需要对指标进行了分类。其次分析研究了五年规划中期目标的分解,对于不变增长趋势和线性增长趋势的年度指标和累计指标提出了分解办法,对于年度内呈现波动趋势的指标提出了半年任务分解办法,给出了正向指标和负向指标的计算公式以及计算结果的数值区间涵义。最后,以陕西省"十二五"规划中期评估为例,展示了研究提出的各种数据处理方法的使用。

It＇s necessary to take metaphase evaluation of the five-year plan, since the tenth five-year Plan. Because the value of quantitative indicators could figure the achievement of the Plan objectively and intuitively, people pay attention to them increasingly.First, the changes of the five-year plan index system are reviewed, and the mid-term evaluation work should be focused with classifications of indicators base on follow-up study needs. Then, some difficulties are paid attentions about how to decompose Five-Years-Plan target into annual target, including decomposing invariant or linear increasing indicators, and annual or cumulative target from FiveYears-Plan into metaphase target, in order to presents first half year target from annual target with cyclical fluctuation. The computational formula of forward or negative indicator is constructed to explain meanings of the interval value of results. As an example, the midterm evaluation of 12 th five-year plan of Shaanxi province shows the use of various data disposing methods that proposed in this paper.