基于生灭过程的公共自行车数量配置模型研究

Quantity-set Model of Public Bicycle Based on Birth and Death Process

以城市一定范围内的公共自行车服务系统为研究对象,针对公共自行车数量配置问题,将公共自行车租赁过程看作一个随机过程,运用"生灭过程"分析该过程,获得该系统中处于空闲状态和服务状态的公共自行车数量期望模型.该模型显示空闲状态和服务状态的公共自行车数量与公共自行车总数、平均租车时间间隔和平均服务时间均有关.以成都市高新区的公共自行车使用数据为例,运用该模型分析系统内公共自行车的使用效率,为公共自行车资源配置提供理论依据,解决了凭借经验来分配公共自行车的问题,使公共自行车服务系统的实施更具有实用性和科学性.

With public bicycle rental system within a certain range of the city as the study object,for the number of public bicycle configuration issue,and regarding the public bicycle rental process as a random process,the paper builds a model for the expectation value of idle and working public bicycle by applying the birth and death process. The model displays that the expectation value of idle and working public bicycle is related to the total number of public bicycle,the mean rental- spaced time and the average working time.Lastly,taking the public bicycle using data of Chengdu high- tech zone as an example,the study could provide theoretical basis for public bicycle resource allocation by analyzing the use efficiency of public bicycle with this model. This method not only solves the problem relying on the experience to allocate public bicycle,but also makes the implementation of public bicycle rental system more practical and scientific.