农业保险、农业贷款与农户人均纯收入——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

Agricultural Insurance,Agricultural Loan and Per capita Net Income of Rural Households—An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

本文基于2001—2013年31个省际面板数据,通过构建面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解,实证考察了农户人均纯收入、农业保险和农业贷款三者之间的相互关系。研究结果表明:各区域仅西部农业保险没能表现出对农户人均纯收入的正向促进作用;各区域农业贷款都表现出对农户人均纯收入的正向促进作用,但存在1-2年的滞后期;各区域农业贷款对农户人均纯收入的促进作用均大于农业保险对农户人均纯收入的促进作用;农业保险和农业贷款之间的相互影响具有区域性差异。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2001 to 2013,this paper establishes a PVAR model to investigate the relationship among agricultural insurance,agricultural loan and per capita net income of rural households. The results show that only agricultural insurance of the west area has no positive promoting effect on the per capita net income of rural households; the agricultural loans of every region play positive promoting roles on per capita net income of rural households,but there is a time lag of 1-2 years; The effect of agricultural loan on per capita net income of rural households is greater than that of agricultural insurance. Besides,the interaction between agricultural insurance and agricultural loan has a regional difference.