离心压缩机的大修对设备故障率的影响

Equipment Overhaul's Impact on the Failure Rate of Centrifugal Compressors

针对离心式压缩机大修对设备故障率的影响进行了研究。采集历年来的离心式压缩机大修和故障数据,对数据进行"峰-峰"分析和H-P滤波处理,确定其长期趋势和周期。以K-101压缩机为例,对包含设备大修虚拟变量的时间序列进行OLS方法的分析,确定出每次设备大修将导致设备故障次数提高3.8611次。为了保证结果的准确性,运用Johansen协整检验法确定出设备大修和设备故障次数之间是具有长期稳定关系的。最后利用Granger因果检验法确定出,在显著性1%的条件下,K-101设备的大修是导致设备故障次数变动的格兰杰原因。

A study of the influence on failure rate for overhaul of equipment was carried out. It has conducted ＂peak＂ analysis and H-P filter to the data, and determining out the long-term trend and cycle according to the overhaul and fault data collected in centrifugal compressor over the years. Taking the K-101 compressor for instance, this paper analyzed the time series which containing dummy variables in OLS method and point out the conclusion that each overhaul will result in equipment failure number increased by 3.8611 times. In order to guarantee the accuracy of the results, Johansen cointegration test was used to determine the long-term relationship between equipment overhaul and failure frequency. Granger causality test was used and the following conclusion was reached, the equipment overhaul is the granger cause of failure times with the significance under 1%.