地震烈度速报产品可靠性分析

Research on seismic intensity rapid report products reliability

借鉴美国Shake Map系统中产品可靠性分析方法,结合福建地区现有地震烈度速报系统,讨论了影响烈度速报产品可靠性的主要因素,给出评估烈度速报产品可靠性的分析方法,研发相应分析模块。以福建仙游地震、四川汶川地震、台湾集集地震为例,分别展示了烈度速报产品分析结果,并对影响产品可靠性的因素及其影响程度进行分析讨论。结果表明,在台站稀疏地区,烈度速报产品的可靠性主要受所选用经验衰减关系的准确性和适用性影响;而在台站较密集的区域,产品的可靠性受到震源机制的详细程度等用于修正烈度速报产品结果的参考条件详细程度的影响。

Reference to the product uncertainty analysis method in ShakeMap system, combined with seismic inten-sity rapid report system （SIRRs） in Fujian region, we discussed main effect factors that may influence productsquality and proposed an evaluation method, and a running module was developed based on it. Taking the Xianyouearthquake of Fujian, the great Wenchuan earthquake and the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan for examples, weshowed the analysis results and discussed influence degree of each factors. Results show that, in regions with sparseseismic monitoring stations, accuracy and applicability of chosen ground motion parameter attenuation relationshipis the main affecting factor for seismic intensity estimation. But when big earthquake occurs, details of seismogenicfault may provide additional information for such products, and the influence of the earthquake may accurate esti-mated based on it, even if dense seismic monitoring stations around the epicenter.