山东省流域水资源安全分析

Water resources security analysis of river basins in Shandong Province

针对山东省水资源供需矛盾和水环境生态问题,利用水资源敏感性和抗压性分析方法,结合抗压性二级指标水资源开发利用率、百万方水承载人口数、水功能区达标对山东省流域水资源进行安全分析.结果表明:山东省水资源最为敏感的三级流域分别为胶东诸河、小清河、徒骇马颊河,而鲁南大部分区域水资源对气候变化敏感性较弱;各流域水资源抗压能力明显都不高,大汶河、徒骇马颊河、湖东区、湖西区、中运河区、沂沭河区、日赣区流域的水资源应对供需矛盾的抗压能力较差,而在胶东诸河、小清河流域水资源的抗压能力则相对较高.在对水资源抗压性二级指标分析中,除了胶东诸河水资源开发利用率小于50%之外,其他三级流域均大于50%,特别像徒骇马颊河、小清河等流域水资源开发利用率大于100%;山东省涉及海河和淮河承载人口驱动的水资源压力相对省内其他区域要大;各流域三级区流域水质达标率普遍较低.

Water security problem has become a major ＂bottleneck＂ constraining the sustainable socioeco- nomic development, and is also a significant strategy of China. Using the analysis method of water re- sources sensitivity and resistance to stress, including the secondary indicators of water resources develop- ment and utilization rate, water crowding and water function zones compliance, this paper will analyze the issues of supply and demand of water resources and water environment. The results show that the Jia- odong rivers, Xiaoqing River and Tuhaimajia River are most sensitive third-class river basins; while the southern regions of Shandong Province are less sensitive to climate change. The resistance of water re- sources from all third-class regions is not significantly higher, especially Dawen River, Tuhaimajia River, East Lake, West Lake, the Canal Zone and Yishu River area having a poor adaptation to deal with supply and demand of water resources; while the adaptive ability of Jiaodong rivers and Xiaoqing River is relative higher. In addition to Jiaodong rivers, the development and utilization rate of the other third-class regions is mote than 50%, especially as the utilization rate of Tuhaimajia River and Xiaoqing River is greater than 100%. The regions of ＂severe water shortage＂ or ＂extreme water shortage＂ are concentrated in Lake West, Tuhaimajia River and East Lake River Basins. Each region＇s length ratio is generally lower than 55%.