服役期内土体液化失效概率分析

Soil liquefaction probability analysis during agiven exposure time

利用2015年美国建筑抗震规范中的衰减模型,结合美国地质勘查局提供的地震灾害地图,利用全概率定理,提出了土体服役期内液化概率的计算方法.算例分析表明,地震参数对土体液化概率具有显著的影响.提出的方法可以合理地考虑服役期内各种可能出现的地震对土体液化评价的影响.

This paper presents a method to predict the liquefaction probability in a given exposure sing the attenuation models in the 2015 Nation Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Provision as the hazard curves derived from the U. S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps. The results sh the ground motion parameters have great impact on the liquefaction potential evaluation. The meth time u- as well ow that od sug- gested can readily take the uncertainties in the earthquake into consideration during the soil liquefaction po- tential evaluation process.