绿色化与城镇化动态耦合探析——以福建省为例

Research on Dynamic Coupling of Greening and Urbanization in Fujian Province

城镇化是中国经济社会发展的主要推力,而绿色化则是经济社会发展的本质诉求。本文以福建省为例,运用灰色关联分析方法,建立多指标评价系统,构建绿色化与城镇化动态耦合模型,揭示影响绿色化与城镇化系统耦合的主要因素,并对两者的耦合度进行动态分析。结果表明:经济增长、城镇基本公共服务水平提升是胁迫生态环境的主要因素;生态环境治理水平和基础条件是制约城镇化发展的主要因素;绿色化与城镇化系统耦合度表现出比较明显的阶段性和波动性,动态变化曲线总体呈现"U"型特征,未来生态环境对城镇化发展支撑的瓶颈会进一步变窄。最后,提出有针对性的对策建议。

Urbanization is the main thrust of China's economic and social development,while greening is the nature demand of that. In this paper,the author takes Fujian Province as an example,uses grey correlation analysis method,establishes a multi-index evaluation system,constructs a dynamic coupling model of greening and urbanization,reveals the main factors affecting the coupling of greening system and urbanization system,and dynamically analyzes the coupling degree between two systems. The results show that the enhancing of urban basic public service level and economic growth are the main factors to stress the ecological environment,and the conditions of ecological environment and the level of governance are the main factors to restrict the development of urbanization. The coupling degree of greening and urbanization system demonstrates obvious characteristics of stage and volatility. The dynamic change curve presents the characteristics of 'U'and the bottleneck of the development of urbanization will be further narrowed in the future. Finally,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.