人民币汇率变动对多国经济增长和产业结构影响的地缘经济分析

Geo-economic Analysis on Impacts of Change in RMB Exchange Rate on Multinational Economic Growth and Industrial Structure

将全世界划分为10个国家(或地区),在全球经济一般均衡框架下,模拟并分析了不同汇率情景下各国和地区的经济增长和产业结构的变化。模拟结果显示:中国的GDP将于2035年超过美国;人民币升值会导致中国的GDP增速放缓,而对其他国家的GDP增长有促进作用;人民币贬值有利于中国GDP的增长,但不利于其他国家GDP的增长;人民币升值后,中国农业、轻工业和建筑业的比重下降,食品加工业、能源业、化学工业和重工业的比重上升,而印度和俄罗斯与中国在地缘经济上是竞争关系,欧美国家与中国在地缘经济上是合作关系,因此印度和俄罗斯的产业结构变化与中国大致相反,而欧美国家的产业结构变化趋势与中国类似。

This paper divides the whole world into 10 countries or regions.Based on a general-equilibrium model,it simulates and analyzes GDP growth and the change in industrial structure of main countries or regions in different exchange rates.The results show as follows：China＇s GDP will surpass U.S.＇s in 2035;when RMB appreciate,China＇s GDP growth rate would slow down,and other countries＇ GDP growth will accelerate,and vice versa in favor of their GDP growth;when RMB appreciate,the proportions of agriculture,light industry and construction industry of China will decline,and the proportion of food processing industry,energy industry,chemical industry and heavy industry will increase,while India and Russia have roughly opposite change directions,and Europe and U.S.have similar change directions,the reason is that India and Russia have competitive relationships with China,and Europe and the USA have cooperative relationships with China from the perspective of geo-economic relationship.