承德市血液制备量变化趋势的灰色动态GM(1,1)模型研究

Research on the grey GM(1,1) model of dynamic blood preparation quantity in Chengde

目的研究灰色动态模型GM(1,1)在河北省承德市中心血站血液制备数量变化趋势中的应用,探讨最佳无偿血液制备管理策略。方法将承德市中心血站2004年-2013年制备的RH阴性解冻红细胞(单位)、去白悬浮红细胞(单位)、冷沉淀凝血因子(单位)、普通冰冻血浆(单位)等4类血液品种数据资料,建立灰色系统GM(1,1)一阶微分方程预测模型。分析并预测2014年-2016年上述4类血液品种制备数量。结果 Y(t)一阶线性微分方程经拟合优度检验,精度均为优。可以很好地应用于血液制备量预测。从而得出2014年-2016年上述4类血液制备数量。结论承德市中心血站以上4类血液制备品种数量有持续上升的趋势。新型灰色系统一阶GM(1,1)常态下可以应用于维持血液最佳库存量,保证峰值与谷值之间的动态平衡,从而保证临床输血的供应。

Objective To study the application of dynamic grey model GM（ 1,1） in the preparation quantity changes in Chengde Central Blood Bank,Hebei,so as to explore the best management strategy for free blood preparation. Methods To collect the data of RH negative thawing red blood cell（ unit）,white suspension red blood cells（ units）,coagulation factor in cryoprecipitate（ units）,plain frozen plasma（ units） prepared in Chengde Central Blood Bank during 2004- December,and to set up differential equation prediction model of gray model（ 1,1）. Analysis and prediction were carried out on the preparation quantity of4 types of blood during 2014- 2016. Results Results of y（ t） of first- order linear differential equation showed ideal accuracy with the goodness of fit test,which can be well applied to the prediction of blood preparation. So preparation quantity was obtained from 2014 to 2016 for the four types of blood. Conclusion The blood preparation of four kinds of blood shows a continous increase in Chengde Central Blood Bank. New grey first order GM（ 1,1） can be used to maintain normal blood levels to ensure the dynamic balance between peak and valley values,so as to ensure the supply of clinical blood transfusion.