中国省域展览业与经济相关关系及其空间溢出研究

Cross-province Analysis on Exhibition Industry and Economic Development Level, and the Spatial Spillover Effects

以中国展览业为例,立足于展览业和区域经济发展的空间分布特征,使用Moran’s I和Moran’s I散点图阐释展览业与区域经济之间的空间自相关性,分析纳入空间因素的空间计量经济模型相对于经典回归模型的优越程度,进而揭示展览业发展对区域经济的空间溢出效应。研究结果显示:1中国展览业发展和区域经济水平在地理空间上分布都不均衡;2展览业及区域经济皆呈现高高聚集(HH)、低低聚集(LL)两种空间聚集格局;3现阶段,中国展馆规模与区域经济之间存在正相关关系;4 SLM优于经典回归模型,展览业发展对区域经济存在显著的空间溢出效应,在展览经济预测研究中充分考虑区域经济增长过程中的空间效应十分必要。

This article took the exhibition industry in China as an example to reveal the spatial distribution characteristics of exhibition industry and economic development level. It also measured the spatial correlation of exhibition industry and regional economic development level with Moran＇s I index and its scatter plot. After the observation of spatial correlation, this article constructed a spatial econometric model, then, on this basis,explored the model＇s merit compared with classical regression model to indicate the spatial spillover effects.The results showed that： 1） regional exhibition industry and economic development level are seriously imbalanced between east and west China; 2） exhibition industry and economic development level show a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and strong spatial correlation between each other, especially, high-high correlation and low-low correlation obtained; 3） at the present stage, the number and the size of exhibition centers do have a positive relationship with economic development level, but the relationship between the factors of exhibition scale and economy are most significant; 4） SLM has higher explanatory ability than classical regression model,and exhibition industry have significant spatial spillover effect in the regional economy. It implied that considering space factors in events＇ economic impact assessment model is necessary.