数值模型的不确定性对污染物运移的影响研究

Effect of Numerical Model Uncertainty on Contaminant Migration

针对数值模型中结构与参数的不确定性因素,以安徽省丘陵地区一铁矿为例,通过建立地下水数值模拟模型,分别分析了结构与参数的不确定性对污染物运移结果的影响程度。分析结果表明:模型结构方面,随着数值模型的结构发生变化,污染羽中心点浓度值随厚度的增加而降低,且污染物的运移影响范围也有所缩小,当厚度增大20%时,一年末水平方向的影响范围由204 m减小至198 m,减小了近3%;参数方面,随着渗透系数的增加,污染羽中心点浓度值逐渐降低,污染羽的影响范围呈现增大的趋势,但增加的幅度较小。

For numerical model,structure and parameters of uncertainty factors in an iron ore in hilly region in Anhui province as an example,through the establishment of numerical simulation of groundwater,respectively analysis of the structure and parameter uncertainty on the influence degree of the pollutant migration results. Analysis results show that the model structure,with the structure change of the numerical model,this article for the formation thickness changed,the contaminant plume center density decreased with increasing the thickness,and the migration of pollutants influence scope is narrow,when the thickness increases 20 %,at the end of a horizontal＇s sphere of influence by 204 m down to 198 m,reduced nearly 3 %;As local layer parameters,the increase of the permeability coefficient,the contaminant plume center density also gradually reduced,the influence of contaminant plume present increasing trend,but increase the size of the smaller.