税收竞争对我国区域经济增长的非线性作用研究——基于动态面板与门限面板模型的分析

The Nonlinear Effects of Tax Competition on China's Regional Economic Growth——Based on Dynamic and Threshold Panel Models

本文认为税收竞争主要通过调整生产要素的配置、吸引国内外资本和影响政府部门的三种途径综合作用于经济增长,由此导致了其对经济增长的非线性作用。本文运用面板门限模型对我国1995—2014年28个省份数据进行实证研究发现,我国税收竞争对区域经济增长确实存在非线性作用。具体而言,当低于第一个门限值时,东、中、西部地区税收竞争均对其经济增长具有显著的促进作用;而当越过第一个门限值后,三个地区税收竞争对经济增长的促进作用都减弱,其中在东部地区该作用下降最为明显。最后,提出若干优化我国区域税收竞争以促进经济增长的政策建议。

This paper supposes that tax competition acts on the economy growth by three channels in a combined ways,which leads to the non-linear effect on economic growth.The three ways can be concluded as adjusting the allocation of factors of production,attracting domestic and foreign capital and influencing the government department＇s behavior.By using the threshold panel models and twenty eight provinces data from 1995 to 2014,we found that our country＇s tax competition does exist non-linear effects on regional economic growth.Specifically,when the tax competition index is lower than the first threshold,the tax competition of east,middle and west has significant role in promoting regional economic growth.When the tax competition index is higher than the first threshold,the impact of tax competition on three region＇s economic growth is decreasing,and the declining role in the eastern part is most obvious.Finally,we come up with some policy recommendations for regional tax competition in order to promote economic growth.