基于协整分析模型的港口物流与经济增长关系的实证分析——以上海市为例

Cointegration on Therelationship of Port Logistics and Economic Growth Empirical Analysis——Taking Shanghai City as an Example

根据1995-2014年的上海市年度数据,选取港口货物吞吐量与上海市生产总值两个具有代表性的变量,通过协整分析以及Granger因果检验分析了港口物流与经济的长期稳定关系和因果关系。结果表明上海市港口物流与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的关系,并且得出上海市港口物流业促进经济的发展。在此基础上对港口物流业提出了几点建设性的建议。

According to the Shanghai annual data from 1995 to 2014,selection of port cargo throughput and Gross Domestic Product( GDP) two representative variables,through the analysis of co-integration analysis and Granger causality test,the long-term stability of the port logistics and economic relations and the causal relationship. The results show that the Shanghai port logistics and economic growth,there is a long-term and stable relationship between and Shanghai port logistics industry to promote the development of economy. Based on this and puts forward some constructive Suggestions of port logistics industry.