化工产业群体性事件演化博弈分析及仿真

Analysis on Evolutionary Game Including Simulation of Chemical Mass Disturbance

化工产业事故对环境、居民等带来的损害日益增加,并由此引发了一系列群体性事件.运用演化博弈理论,构建地方政府和周边居民策略互动得益矩阵,利用复制动态方程,对参与方策略互动进行分析,揭示政府与居民行为策略选择的演化规律,最后在Netlogo软件平台上对演化结果进行多情景仿真分析.理论研究和仿真分析结果表明:地方政府和周边居民之间的博弈存在四种策略组合,其中三个是演化稳定策略组合(公开处理,接受)、(暗箱操作,接受)和(暗箱操作,抗议),一个是不稳定策略组合(公开处理,抗议).

Chemical accidents are increasingly taking toll on the residents and the environment they live by,which also touch off a series of mass disturbance.Applying evolutionary game theory,a payoff matrix of strategic reaction has been proposed for local governments and surrounding residents;based on the replicated dynamic equation,the paper analyzes the parties of the strategic reaction,exposes the evolution law of behavior tactics and actions choice between government and residents,and conducts a multiple scenarios simulation applying the NetLogo.Theoretical research and simulation results show that：the evolutionary stable strategies include（open handling,acceptance）,（black case operation,acceptation） and（black case operation,protesting）,besides an unstable one（open handling,protesting）.