中国居民现金需求研究

On Cash Demand in China

本文通过一个动态Baumol-Tobin模型来研究中国居民的持币行为，该模型在以下方面改进了巳有的研究；建立在动态决策基础之上，引入了货币化因素、居民存货行为以及货币调整成本。模型结果表明：现金需求函数中的变量之间的匹配性至关重要。同时函数的动态结构由债券-现金转换成本与货币调整成本函数的具体形式决定。最后，我们分别使用季度与月度数据估计了基于交易的误差修正模型（ECM），结果验证了该种设定下名义利率影响显著、通货膨胀率影响不显著的结论，同时表明名义利率的影响随时间而增强。

This paper analyzes individual money demand in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium version of Baumol-Tobin model and applies it to estimate money demand in China.The model distinguishes itself in the following two aspects:first, it is based on dynamic decision;second,it introduces into the model the monetization process,inventory choice,and adjustment costs of money demand.Several implications of the model are explored.We estimate the transactions-based error-correction model by using China's quarterly and monthly data.The results show that the nominal interest rate has a significant effect on cash demand,while inflation rate has no significant effect. In addition,the effects become more significant as time evolves.