基于熵权法的机场运行风险评价

Risk Assessment of the Airport Operation Based on Entropy Weight

结合国内某民用机场的安全管理组织结构、2008—2012年发生的事故和不安全事件,构建了一套新的风险评价指标体系,建立了机场风险熵数学模型,运用层次分析法和熵权法确定各个指标的综合权重。以该机场为例验证了模型的有效性。由模型的研究结果可知:该机场飞行区运控模块的风险水平最高,其次是综合安全管理模块,再次是运行控制模块和航站区管理模块,最后是空防安全管理模块。将由模型得到的结果和该机场的实际运行情况进行了对比分析,其结果可为机场管理方提出一些改善建议。

Combining with the safety management organization structure of a domestic civil airport and the accidents or unsafe incidents happened in the airport between 2008 and 2012,a new index system was constructed to judge the airport＇s safe level. Based on the system,the risk entropy model was built andweights for these indexes was syntheticallycomputed by using the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） method and the entropy-weight method. Taking the airport as an example,the effectiveness of the model was confirmed and the risk entropy values of all the management departments were calculated. The result shows,the airfield area operation and control part has the highest risk level,then the security management part,then operation and control part and terminal area part,and aviation securi-ty management part has the lowest risk level. Finally,on the basis of the entropy values,relevant departments＇ risk levels were analyzed,and in terms of the incidents occurred during the actual operation of the airport,some suggestions to lower the risk level were given in consideration of the incidents occurred during the actual operation of the airport.