大豆支持政策对大豆价格波动影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Impact of Supportive Policies on Soybean Price Fluctuation

大豆虽然在我国粮食领域中有着独特的地位,但是自2006年以来国产大豆数量一直不断波动,并呈现下降趋势,并且进口大豆数量从2006年不到3000万吨直升至2014年将近7000万吨。针对与此同时产生的大豆价格大幅波动状况,国家出台了一系列的支持政策。本文构建了价格时间序列分析模型,利用农业部的大豆价格监测数据并结合政府施行的大豆支持政策,分析了我国国产大豆与进口大豆价格的波动特征。结果表明政策实施过程中达到了降低国产大豆季节性变动、随机因素变动和周期性变动频率和幅度的效果。

Soybean has a unique position in Chinese food supply field, but the amount of domestic produced soybean saw a constantly declining since 2006. Correspondingly, the amount of imported soybeans increased from less than 30 million tons to nearly 70 million tons from 2006 to 2014. Chinese government launched a series of supportive policies to address the consequent drastic fluctuation of soybean prices. Based on the monitoring data of Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and relevant policies, this paper establishes a price analysis model based on time series, revealing the characteristics of price fluctuation of domestic produced and imported soybean. The result shows that supportive policies alleviates the consequence of soybean price＇s seasonal fluctuation, random fluctuation, and frequency and magnitude of period fluctuation.