近53 a长江流域气温的时空变化特征分析

Spatiotemporal of Yangtze River in 53 Years

根据长江流域108个气象站点1961―2013年逐日气象观测资料,计算最高温度（Tmax）、最低温度（Tmin）、平均温度（Tmean）等气象因子的倾向率,通过Mann-Kendall突变检验（MK检验）和ArcGIS反距离权重插值法定量分析其年、季及主要作物生长季时空变化特征。结果表明：近53 a长江流域Tmax、Tmin、Tmean年值分别在19.1~21.0、10.2~11.7和14.7~16.4℃间变化,年尺度上分别呈现0.150、0.221、0.186℃/10 a的上升趋势,均在20世纪90年代出现了突发性上升;同时,Tmax、Tmin、Tmean均呈现夏季上升趋势最弱（0.069、0.161、0.115℃/10 a）,Tmax、Tmean春季上升趋势最明显（0.218、0.216℃/10 a）,Tmin冬季上升趋势最明显（0.294℃/10 a）;空间上,Tmax、Tmin、Tmean均呈现由东南部向西部、北部递减的规律,Tmax年值有17.6%、18.5%的站点升幅分别达显著（P〈0.05）、极显著水平（P〈0.01）,Tmin年值有7.4%、78.7%的站点升幅分别达显著（P〈0.05）、极显著水平（P〈0.01）,Tmean年值有16.7%、63.9%的站点升幅分别达显著（P〈0.05）、极显著水平（P〈0.01）;Tmax、Tmean倾向率的空间分布仅夏、冬2季相似,其他季节间差异明显,Tmin倾向率的空间分布的季节差异较小,均表现为东、西部较大,中部较小的规律。研究结果对于未来长江流域农业水资源管理与种植制度优化适应气候变化具有重要参考价值。

Based on the daily meteorological data from 108 meteorological stations in the Yangtze Raver basin of China in 1961 --2013, and by using linear trend estimate, Mann- Kendall mutation test, the methods of inverse distance- weighted interpolation, the spatio temporal variation patterns of maximum temperature, minimum tem- perature and mean temperature in four seasons, growing-season of major crops and annual were studied in this paper. The results showed that in recent 53 years, maximum temperature changed from 10.2℃ to 11.7℃; minimum temperature changed from 19.2 ℃ to 21.0℃; mean temperature changed from 14.7℃ to 16.4℃.And all of them experienced a sudden rise in the 1990s. The warming trend of the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and mean temperature were respectively 0.150, 0.221℃/10 a and 0.186℃/IO a. At the same time, all of them increased most inconspicuously in summer （0.069, 0.161, 0.115℃/10 a）; maximum temperature and mean temperature increased most obviously in spring （0.218, 0.216℃/10 a）; minimum temperature increased most ob- viously in winter （0.294℃/10 a）. Spatial analysis results showed that maximum temperature, minimum tempera- ture and mean temperature decreased from the southeast to the northwest across the basin. For maximum tempera- ture, 17.6% of the stations passed through the 0.05 significance test; 18.5% of the stations passed through the 0.01 significance test. For minimum temperature, 7.4% of the stations passed through the 0.05 significance test; 78.7% of the stations passed through the 0.01 significance test. For mean temperature, 16.7% of the stations passed through the 0.05 significance test; 63.9% of the stations passed through the 0.01 significance test. The spa- tial distribution of the trend of maximum temperature and mean temperature were similar in summer and winter; minimum temperature was similar in all seasons. The research would provide the basis for agricultural water re- sources management and optimizing cropping system to adapt to climate change.