计划生育政策调整对人口数量和结构影响的研究

Research on the Influence of the Adjustment of the Family Planning Policy on the Number and Structure of Population

计划生育政策的提出有效地控制了我国的人口增长,改善了经济发展和人民生活。但其产生的负面影响也逐渐加剧,迫使国家提出了开放"单独二孩"政策。从本国具体国情出发,综合考虑影响人口数量、结构的多方面因素,通过分别建立年龄别生育模型、优化阻滞增长模型、年龄别死亡率模型、Leslie矩阵模型,最终形成反映我国实际情况的具年龄结构的人口增长模型。研究在低生育水平下,实施计划生育调整政策对未来人口数量、结构及其对教育、劳动力供给与就业、养老等方面的重要影响。

Family Plan Policy was implemented to effectively control the rapidly increasing population which improved the economic development and the people＇s life. But in the other hand,the negative effects of ‘Family Plan Policy＇gradually increased,forcing the government implement＇selective two-child policy＇. Based on the specific national conditions in China considering the various factors influencing the population structure,use the Age specific fertility model,Age specific death model,Blocks the growth model,Leslie matrix model to form the model which reflect the actual situation in our country. Paper studies,in the low birth rate,the impact of the implementation of family planning policy on the future population structure and its impact on education,labor supply,employment and pension in the future.