风电机组出力状态数对含风电机组配电网可靠性影响

The influence by model states number of WTG output using for the reliability of electrical distribution networks

基于风速分布的ARMA、Weibull和指数平滑模型,建立风电机组的多状态出力模型,并对含风电机组的配电网可靠性进行评估。应用该算法对RBTS-BUS6测试系统进行可靠性评估,并对不同风速预测模型对可靠性评估的影响进行对比分析,分析了风电机组多状态出力模型状态数的变化对含风电机组配电网可靠性指标的影响,表明指数平滑模型对应的配电网可靠性指标准确度更高。

Muhi-state output model of wind turbine generators is established and the reliability of electrical distribution networks considering wind turbine generators is assessed based on wind speed distribution ARMA, Weibull and exponential smoothing model. The algorithm is applieated on the RBTS-BUS6 test system reliability assessment, the different assessment results based on different forecasting models is eomparaed, the influence on the reliability indices of distribution network with the change of the model states number of WTG output is analysed, the result shows that the exponential smoothing model is usefull and posseses efficiency, provides a more accuracy results.