灰色理论Verhulst模型用于滑坡预测的研究

A Grey Theory-Based Verhulst Grey Model for Prediction of Landslides

首先介绍了应用Verhulst模型进行滑坡预报时产生误报的现象 ,然后阐述了Verhulst模型的基本原理 ,并从理论上分析了产生误报的原因 ,给出了应用V氏模型进行滑坡预报的条件。实例研究表明 ,V氏模型用于短期滑坡预测有很强的可靠性。

When the Verhuslt grey model is used to predict landslides, errors occur sometimes. In this paper, the fundamental principles of the Verhulst model are presented and the causes for such prediction errors are analyzed theoretically. The conditions for the application of the Verhulst model for landslide prediction are proposed. A Case study shows that the Verhulst model is remarkably reliable for prediction of short period landslides.