中国大豆贸易调控政策对国内垂直价格传递影响研究

The Study of the Impact of Chinese Soybean Trade Policies on Domestic Vertical Price Transmission

粮食危机期间,跟其他粮食主产国或出口国一样,中国实施了粮食贸易调控政策。本文通过引入马尔科夫机制转换向量误差修正模型(MS-VECM),选取在同时期未实施大豆贸易调控政策的美国为参照国,分析了中国大豆贸易调控政策对大豆和豆油垂直价格传递的影响。研究发现,中国实施的大豆贸易调控政策导致了国内豆油市场的价格调整速度加快,豆油价格虽偏向均衡,但大豆市场和豆油市场的整合程度下降,豆油价格更加不稳定。为此,国家在实施临时性的粮食贸易调控政策时需要考虑实施相关替代政策,或及时出台相应配套政策,以减缓其负面影响。

This paper uses a Markov Regime Switching vector error correction model( MS-VECM) to study the impact of soybean trade policies on vertical price transmission of domestic soybean market. The United States was chosen as a control group who does not implement soybean trade policies in the same time. The empirical study finds that: soybean trade policies led to a faster adjustment speed of soybean oil market prices and more equilibrium of soybean oil prices,but the integration of the soybean-soybean oil markets declined and soybean oil prices became more volatile.