中国生产性服务业TFP的时空差异与影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal Difference and Influential Factors Analysis on Total Factor Productivity of Productive Service in China

在利用Malmquist指数法测算2005-2013年中国30个省份生产性服务业的全要素生产率(TFP)的基础上,采用核密度估计法分析了TFP的动态演变,并运用分位数回归方法对中国生产性服务业TFP的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现:在考察期内中国生产性服务业TFP总体呈下降态势,技术效率下降是其下降的主要原因;核密度曲线说明中国生产性服务业TFP省际差距扩大,技术效率和技术进步逐渐呈现两极分化的趋势;分位数回归结果表明,工业化水平和人力资本水平对生产性服务业TFP提升具有普遍的促进作用,而信息化水平、对外开放水平、制造业集中度对生产性服务业TFP提高的贡献大小均与地区生产性服务业TFP的水平有关。

Using the Malmquist index method,the total factor productivity of productive service of 30 provinces and cities in China during 2005-2013 are measured.At the same time,kernel density distribution is used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the TFP,and the quantile regression method is used to make empirical analysis on the factors affecting the TFP of productive service.The results show that during2005-2013 the TFP of productive services in China declines,and technical efficiency is the main factor impacting TFP change;Spatiotemporal difference of TFP is quite large,and the technical efficiency and technical progress gradually shows the tendency of polarization;The levels of industrialization and human capital have promoting effects on TFP of productive service,and the levels of informatization,opening and the concentration of manufacturing can promote the TFP of productive service,but the extent of the impact is related to the levels of TFP.