收入与增长权衡:分权下地方政府努力方向研究

Revenue Increase or Economic Growth:Direction of Local Government under the Fiscal Decentralization

基于1999-2013年全国30省际数据,利用动态面板模型,考察了财政分权深化下地方政府的努力方向。结果表明:在财政分权初期,地方政府因获得更多的资源支配权,其积极性被充分调动出来,并极大促进了经济增长和地方财政收入的增加。但随着财政分权进一步深化,其对经济增长推动作用逐渐减弱,而对地方财税增加的推进作用依然存在,地方政府的努力方向由此产生扭曲,稳定并提高地方财税增速成为其首要目标。建立合理的地方政府考核制度,完善财政分权制度,对于稳定地方经济增长速度,突破中等收入陷阱至关重要。

In order to find the direction of local government under the background of fiscal decentralization,based on the data of 30 provinces from 1999 to 2013,this paper builds a dynamic panel model to make an empirical analysis.The results show that at the beginning of the fiscal decentralization,local governments due to obtain more right of resource control,their enthusiasm has been fully mobilized,thus greatly promote economic growth and local tax increases.However,with the further deepening of fiscal decentralization,its driving effect on economic growth into the inflection point,but the effect of promoting local tax increase continues.The direction of local government has been distorted,improving the local fiscal revenue growth becomes its primary goal.If we want to stable local economic growth and break through the middle-income trap,to establish a reasonable appraisal system of local government,improve the system of fiscal decentralization is very important.