基于1次实测流量的洪水过程流量推算方法

Estimation Method of Flood Process Flow Based on One Measured Discharge

基于1次实测断面流量资料,依据水位变化引起垂线水深与流速的变化关系,获得多个水位变化后相应的流量数值,作为水位—流量关系数据参与定线。结果表明:1Q+h分析法流量推算的平均误差绝对值为7.94%,系统误差为0.53%,70%保证率的推算误差绝对值为9.68%,90%保证率的推算误差绝对值为16.0%,72.7%的年份可以保证70%保证率的推算误差绝对值小于10%;2Q+Z分析法流量推算的平均误差绝对值为6.88%,系统误差为0.16%,70%保证率的推算误差绝对值为7.78%,90%保证率的推算误差为15.3%,从年份来说,85.7%的年份可以保证70%保证率的推算误差绝对值小于10%。建议洪水过程中以较高的精度进行流量测验,从以往的要求测验次数转变到要求测验精度上来,在洪水过程中应力争用常测法测验,为洪水过程采用分析法推算流量提供条件。

Based on one measured flow data,and according to the variable relationship between the water depth in the vertical and the velocity of the flow caused by the change of the water level to get the corresponding flow value after several water level changes as the water levelflow data involved in alignment. The results show that: a) when we used the Q+H analysis method to calculate flow,the mean error value is7.94%,the system error is 0.53%,70% of the prediction result can guarantee the error is 9.68%,90% of the prediction result can guarantee the error is 16.0%,72.7% of the year can guarantee 70% of the prediction error is less than 10%; b) when we used the Q+Z analysis method to calculate flow,the mean error value is 6.88%,the system error is 0.16%,70% of the prediction result can guarantee the error is 7.78%,90% of the prediction result can guarantee the error is 15.3%,85.7% of the year can guarantee 70% of the prediction error is less than 10%.It is suggested that the flow rate test with high precision should be carried out in the flood process,the previous requirements to the number of the test should be changed to the test accuracy,the constant test method should be used in the flood process which can provide the condition for the flow calculation of flood process by using analysis method