基于相对差异函数和博弈论的泥石流敏感性分析

Debris Flow Susceptibility Analysis Based on Relative Difference Function and Game Theory

引入可变模糊理论中的相对差异函数,建立泥石流敏感性分析模型.选取内蒙古赤峰抽水蓄能电站下库区11条泥石流沟,确定7个主要影响因子即单位面积物源量、泥砂补给段长度比、主沟平均比降、山坡平均坡度、流域切割密度、主沟床弯曲系数和植被贫瘠率.利用优序图法确定因子的主观权重,熵值法确定客观权重,由博弈论确定各个影响因子的组合权重分别为0.19,0.14,0.19,0.10,0.09,0.18,0.11.计算分析得出,该库区11条泥石流的敏感性有6条为轻度敏感,5条为中度敏感.将评价结果与现场实际调查情况对比分析可知,11条泥石流沟的敏感度水平与泥石流实际发育情况相符,证明该方法的可行性.

A relative different function of the variable fuzzy theory was introduced to the building of a sensitivity analysis model for debris flow. 11 debris flowcatchments located in Chifeng pumped storage power station in Inner Mongolia were investigated. Seven major factors,namely,loose material volume per square kilometer,loose material supply length ratio,average gradient of the main channel,average hill slope,drainage density,curvature of the main channel,and poor vegetation area ratio,were selected for debris flowsusceptibility analysis. Precedence chart was used for objective weighting and entropy method was used for subjective weighting. Combination weighting was calculated by game theory. Combination weights of major factors for the investigated 11 debris flowcatchments are 0. 19,0. 14,0. 19,0. 10,0. 09,0. 18 and 0. 11,respectively. Susceptibility results showthat the susceptibility of 6 debris flowcatchments are very lowand 5 are low. Comparing the susceptibility results with field observations,11 debris flowcatchments agrees very well with real status of debris flow,proved the feasibility of this method.