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经济增长与碳排放的动态因果关系研究——基于Bootstrap rolling window

Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Causal Nexus-Viewed through a Bootstrap Rolling Window
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摘要 本文采用Bootstrap rolling window检验法,利用1953—2013年的全样本和1969—2013年的子样本研究中国碳排放和经济增长间的动态因果关系。研究发现:(1)1969—2013年碳排放和经济增长间存在多样的因果关系:1983年和2002年存在经济增长到碳排放的单向因果关系;1999—2001年经济增长和碳排放存在双向因果关系;2003—2004年存在碳排放到经济增长的单向因果关系;其他时期不存在因果关系。(2)在存在因果关系的年份中,碳排放与经济增长的相互影响是动态的:碳排放对GDP的影响在1999—2001年间是正向的,而在2003—2004年间是负向的;GDP对碳排放在1983年和2000—2002年间存在正向影响,1999年存在负向影响。总而言之,经济增长与碳排放不存在必然的因果关系。低碳排放也可保持高经济增长。 This paper analyzes the dynamic causal links between carbon emissions and economic growth in China through a bootstrap rolling window by using a full sample of annual China data from 1953 to 2013 and a sub-sample from 1969 to 2013. The most important findings are as follows. Firstly, the causal links between carbon emissions and economic growth are varied in the subsample from 1969 to 2013.There are a unidirectional causality from GDP to carbon emissions in 1983 and 2002,a bidirectional causality between carbon emissions and GDP in 1999-2001,a unidirectional causality from carbon emissions to GDP in 2003-2004 and non-causality between carbon emissions and GDP in other times. Secondly, the mutual influence between carbon emissions and economic growth is dynamic in the year of the existence of a causal relationship. Among them, the impact of carbon emissions on GDP is positive in 1999-2001 and negative in 2003-2004.The impact of GDP on carbon emissions is positive in 1983 and 2000-2002 and negative in 1999.In a word, there are causality or non-causality between carbon emissions and economic growth. So in the case of low carbon emissions,we can maintain high economic growth.
出处 《产业经济评论》 2016年第6期105-115,共11页 Review of Industrial Economics
关键词 氧化碳排放量 改进的似然比检验 BOOTSTRAP ROLLING WINDOW arbon emissions the modified LR test bootstrap rolling window
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