京津冀区域金融发展与产业升级互动研究

Interaction Analysis on Financial Development and Industrial Upgrading in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

在协同发展背景下,本文对京津冀地区金融发展与产业升级之间的关系进行探索,根据1993年-2014年相关数据,构建VAR(2)模型进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,京津冀地区金融发展与产业结构升级存在协整关系,即存在长期均衡关系;金融发展对产业升级的影响是先增强后减弱,而产业升级对金融发展的影响先较弱再增强。金融发展对产业升级短期有较大的贡献,而产业升级对金融发展的贡献在前期不明显,随后其贡献逐渐增加。随着时间的推移,金融发展和产业升级相互的贡献均基本维持在一定水平上,前者的贡献相对较大。

In the context of collaborative development, this paper intends to discuss the interaction of financial development and industrial upgrading in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. According to the VAR（2） model, this paper analyzes relative historical data from1993 to 2014. The result shows that the long-run equilibrium relationship （co-integration relationship） exists between financial development and industrial upgrading in this region. The response of industrial upgrading to financial development is enhanced in the beginning and weakened laterly, while financial development to industrial upgrading is small and then enhanced. Financial development has a greater contribution to the industrial upgrading in short-term, while the contribution of industrial upgrading to financial development is not obvious. As time goes on, the mutual contribution of financial development and industrial upgrading is basically maintained at a certain level, but the contribution of financial development to industrial upgrading is relatively larger.