基于云模型铜陵市环境经济系统脆弱性研究

Research on vulnerability of environmental economic system based on cloud model in Tongling City

依据PSR模型构建资源枯竭型城市环境经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,运用云模型和属性识别理论动态评价了铜陵市环境经济系统脆弱性,并运用脱钩理论分析了环境系统、经济系统及环境经济系统内部子系统相互作用机制.结果表明,2005年-2014年,铜陵市环境系统呈高度、中度脆弱性,下降趋势缓慢;经济系统脆弱性高度运行,下降趋势缓慢;环境经济系统各年脆弱性等级居高不下;环境压力与环境响应总体呈进化依赖态势,佐证环境状态趋优对环境治理及环保投入的高度依赖性.经济压力与经济响应呈依赖与脱钩交错变化态势,佐证经济转型内在与外在阻滞力量的错综复杂性.环境系统与经济系统总体以强脱钩为主,即经济发展与环境改善同向趋优发展,表征环境科技和环境教育对环境改善的大于单纯环保经济投入的作用.

Based on the PSR model, the vulnerability evaluation index system is con- structed on environment-economy system of resource exhausted city. Then the vulnera- bility of environment-economy system for Tongling City is evaluated based on cloud model and dynamic attribute recognition theory for Tongling city, and the interaction mechanism of environment system, economic system and economic subsystem is analyzed with decoupling theory. The results show that from 2005 to 2014 the environmen- tal system was high and moderate vulnerability in Tongling city, and was slow decline; economic system vulnerability is highly operational, and the downward trend is slow; the level of vulnerability of environment-economy system is high; environmental pres- sure and environmental response exhibit overall evolution trend depends on the state of the environment, demonstrating the high dependency of environmental governance and investment in environmental protection on the optimization of environmental status. The coupling and decoupling of economic pressure and economic response is alternating, in- dicating the complexity between internal and external block forces of economic transfor- mation. Environmental system and economic system are mainly based on strong decou- pling, that is, economic development and environmental improvement are both develo- ping toward the optimization trend, characterizing the greater function of environmental science and technology and environmental education on environmental improvement than the simple environmental economic inputs.