基于能源类型的中国反弹效应测算及其分解

Rebound effect and its decomposition by different types of energy: a CGE analysis for China

能源问题是实现可持续发展的重大战略问题。能效改进所引起的能耗反弹问题已成为能源经济学领域的一个重要议题。针对已有研究基于复合能源维度探讨反弹效应的不足,本文通过构建一个引入反弹效应测算模块的中国静态CGE模型,研究不同类型能源效率改进的节能效果和反弹差异,并将其在生产侧和消费侧进行分解。在分别提高所有生产部门一次能源使用效率和二次能源使用效率两种情景下,我们发现提高二次能源使用效率对经济的促进作用更大,带来的能源节约也更多。就反弹效应而言,两种情景的反弹效应在9.6%-27.9%范围间,但提高一次能源使用效率带来的反弹效应要普遍大于提高二次能源使用效率带来的反弹。这意味着,能效改进的能源类型选择将关系到政策的实施效果。对反弹效应在生产侧和消费侧的分解则显示,生产侧的能效改进会刺激消费侧能耗增加,而且来自消费侧的能耗增加在二次能源品种的反弹效应中扮演了重要角色,尤其是成品油和燃气。综上,我们认为不论从经济表现还是反弹效应来看,提高二次能源使用效率都是比较理想的能源类型选择,这是以往研究未曾注意到的。同时,由于反弹效应的存在确实降低了能效政策的有效性,因此政府在制定能效政策时可通过对冲能效改进带来的能源服务价格下降来减缓能耗反弹。引导和规范居民的用能观念和用能行为也是减缓反弹效应的一个重要途径,这一点对能源需求远未饱和的发展中国家尤其重要。

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested. However, most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy type. This study adopted a China-CGE model involving 135 sectors to investigate the rebound effect of different types of energy and further decomposed the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component. A once-off costless 5% energy efficiency improvement of using primary energy and secondary energy was imposed, respectively, in all the production sectors. The results showed that improving efficiency of using secondary energy had a larger positive impact on GDP with better energy conservation. In general, improving efficiency of using primary energy showed the larger rebound than improving efficiency of using secondary energy with rebound effect in the range of 9.6% - 27. 9%, which implied that the choice of energy type was a key factor to the effectiveness of energy efficiency policy. It further decomposed the rebound effects into production component, and final demand component, and showed that final demand component had positive contributions to rebound, and in particular, had outstanding contribution on the rebound of secondary energy including oil products and gas supply. We concluded that improving efficiency of secondary energy was a better energy type choice for effective energy efficiency policy design. And complementary policies of increasing the price of energy service could be adopted to reduce rebound effect. In addition, the paper points out that the policy makers should also guide and regulate the energy consumption behaviors of the households. We argue that this is especially relevant for developing countries who are far from saturation in their consumption of key energy services.