产流系数模型在故县水库产流预报中的应用研究

Application of Runoff Producing Model in Guxian Reservoir Inflow Forecast

基于产流系数的产流模型是以蓄满产流为概念的集总式模型,已应用到一些流域径流预报中,被认为可进一步推广应用。介绍了模型的基本原理,在分析流域水文特性的基础上以灵口、卢氏为例构建了故县水库产流预报模型。研究结果表明,该模型在故县水库具有较强的适应性,有较高的预报精度,可为故县水库洪水预报方案编制提供基础。

runoff producing model is based on the lumped model with the concept of stored-full runoff theory, it has been applied to some ofthe runoff forecast and be considered for further promotion and application. To build a model for flood forecasting, we analyzed some water-sheds＂ hydrological characteristics in Lingkou and Lushi, based on that, we built the runoff forecasting model of the reservoir in Guxian Res-ervoir. This paper introduces the basic fundamentals of it. The results show that the model has strong adaptability and higher forecast accuracyfor the reservoir in GuXian Reservoir, it can provide basis of flood forecasting scheme for the reservoir in GuXian Reservoir.