城市公共场所拥挤踩踏事故机理与风险评估研究—基于EST层次影响模型

Mechanism and risk evaluation of pedestrian stampede accidents in public places of cities——A level influence model based on the event system theory( EST)

近年来拥挤踩踏事故在世界各地屡屡发生,已经严重威胁到了城市的健康发展。基于此,本文统计了近十六年来的拥挤踩踏事故案例,以事件系统理论(EST)为基础,结合事件本身特点来分析踩踏事故机理,建立拥挤踩踏事故原理图,提出面向事件特性的防控手段及风险评估的重点内容。结果表明具有一定强度的初始事件只有在特殊的时刻发生并对组织产生一定的影响才会导致踩踏事故的发生。因此在实际工作中,要根据事件特性,从事件强度、事件空间以及事件时间三个方面做好预防措施。

There are a growing number of crowded stampede events all over the world in recent years, which have seriously threaten the healthy development of modem cities. Therefore, this paper has recorded some crowded stampede cases for nearly 16 years. Based on the event system theory （ EST）, and combining with the characteristics of the event analyzes mechanism of accidents, establishing the mechanism figure of stampede events, this paper puts up the prevention and risk evaluation method for the model of events. The stampede cases are happened under the event with strength special time and great influence to the organization. We should take consideration of event strength, event space, event time in daily work and do more effort in the three aspects.