摘要
近年来,受世界经济不景气、美国页岩油气技术突破、欧佩克国家不减产政策以及地缘政治等因素的影响,国际石油市场处于供过于求的状态,国际油价持续走低,国际石油市场正步入一个"再平衡"时期,国际石油供给、需求和价格面临新一轮重构。运用均衡模型分析国际石油市场供求趋势和国际油价走势,从短期看,国际石油市场供需基本面难以改变,油价仍将低位运行;从中长期看,国际石油市场的均衡价格可能为80美元/桶左右。作为石油生产、消费和进口大国的中国,要积极抓住这一历史机遇期,加快推进油气全产业链结构性变革和能源结构改革,建立更加完备的石油战略储备体系,加快原油期货市场的建设,更好地维护和保障我国的石油安全。
In recent years,the international oil market is in the state of supply exceeding demand and the price of oil continues to decline,due to the global economic depression,U.S. breakthrough in shale gas technology,OPEC countries maintaining its production,and financial and geopolitics factors. The international oil market is entering a“rebalancing”period,and oil supply and demand and oil price are faced with a new round of restructuring. Using the equilibrium model,we analyze the supply and demand of international oil market,and find that the fundamentals of oil supply and demand is not easy to change in the short term,and oil price will stay low. But in the mid-long term,oil price could reach and stay at about$80 per barrel. Therefore,as a major oil producer,consumer and importer,China should seize this opportunity to accelerate structural reform of China’s oil and gas industry and energy structure,to build a more complete strategic oil reserve system and to accelerate the construction of crude oil futures market,so that we can better ensure the national oil safety.
作者
胡国松
李海东
HU Guosong LI Haidong(School of Economics and Management, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan, 610500, China)
出处
《西南石油大学学报(社会科学版)》
2016年第6期19-26,共8页
Journal of Southwest Petroleum University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
四川省软科学研究计划项目"世界石油贸易格局走势与中国的石油进口安全"(2015ZR0223)
四川石油天然气发展研究中心项目"新常态下中国石油产业创新驱动发展战略研究"(SKW14-06)
关键词
低油价
国际石油市场
市场均衡
石油安全
能源结构
low oil price
international oil market
market equilibrium
oil security
energy structure