基于VEC模型的比特币的需求与价格关系研究

Relationship between bitcoin demand and price based on VEC model

区块链技术被运用到货币上后,一类新兴数字货币发展起来,比特币则是它们之中的翘楚.本文以比特币为例,用对比分析的方法,将比特币与传统货币,及由各国央行筹划发行的数字货币作对比,介绍了其基本货币性质,并着重强调其"去中心化"的特点.而后从货币的支付职能和金融资产本质考虑,将比特币的基本需求分为投机性需求和交易性需求,并选取合适的解释变量做实证分析,研究了其需求价格关系.结果显示,长期均衡下,随着交易性需求扩张,比特币的价格可能上行;同时,比特币作为一种新兴的数字货币,可能由于关注过热等原因,已有数据的统计特征还不够明显,从而使一部分实证结果与经济学常理相符程度不高,可能需要跟踪研究.

As the blockchain technique has been applied to the currency, a new kind of digital money has developed rapid- ly. Bitcoin is a leader among them. This paper takes bitcoin for example,using comparative analysis, compares it with the tradi- tional currency and digital currency issued by the central banks, introduces the basic nature of bitcoin, and emphasizes its ＂de- centralization＂ characteristics. Based on the consideration of currency＇s payment functions and the essence of financial assets, the basic needs of bitcoin are divided into two parts：speculative demand and transaction demand. And the appropriate variables are selected to make the empirical analysis, studying the relationship between bitcoin＇ s demand and price. The results shows that under long-term equilibrium, bitcoin＇ s prices may rise, with the transactional demand expanding. At the same time, as an e- merging digital currency, bitcoin receives much more attention, which probably causes the statistical characteristics of the exist- ing data to be not significant enough. Thus,a part of the empirical results do not have such high conformity with the economic theory ,which needs to be studied further.