制造业外移对江苏省产业空心化的影响——基于改进的灰色投影关联度模型的分析

Influences of Manufacturing Industry Out-shift on Industrial Hollowing in Jiangsu Province——Based on the Analysis by Improved Gray Projection Relation Model

针对产业空心化的特点,选取规模增长率、效率增长率、就业增长率、就业结构、TFP增长率和出口结构作为二级变量,选取江苏省ODI存量作为制造业外移的变量,以2004～2014年数据为样本,基于改进的灰色投影关联度模型实证研究了制造业外移对江苏省产业空心化的影响。结果表明：江苏省2014年可能发生产业空心化,制造业外移是江苏省产业空心化的影响因素之一。所以,江苏省应该正确处理实体经济与虚拟经济之间的关系,巩固现有制造业,优化制造业外移结构,增加研发经费投入,推动中高端制造业和战略性新兴产业的发展,以此来消除产业空心化。

According to features of industrial hollowing,taking scale growth rate,employment growth rate,employment structure,TFP growth rate and export structure as secondary variables and ODI stock of Jiangsu Province as the variable of manufacturing industry out-shift,using the data of 2004-2014 as samples,based on the empirical research by improved gray projection relation model,it analyzes influences of manufacturing industry out-shift on industrial hollowing in Jiangsu Province.It demonstrates that industrial hollowing probably would happen in Jiangsu in 2014 and manufacturing industry out-shift is one of the influencing factors.As a result,the relationship between real economy and virtual economy should be handled properly in Jiangsu.We should promote the current manufacturing industry,optimize the structure of manufacturing industry out-shift,increase RD investment and enhance the development of the high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries so as to eliminate industrial hollowing.