融资约束还是需求冲击?——金融危机期间中国上市公司资本投资研究

Financial Constraints or Demand Shocks?An Examination on Corporate Investment in China's Listed Firms During the Financial Crisis

本文从需求冲击视角和融资约束视角考察金融危机期间上市公司资本投资变化及其原因。使用上市公司季度数据,我们发现资本投资在危机后期相比危机之前下降幅度达到19.4个百分点。并且,海外市场经营程度更高的公司资本投资下降显著更多。没有证据表明,危机爆发前公司的融资约束程度同危机期间资本投资的变化相关。研究还发现,伴随着资本投资的下降,危机后期公司的现金持有上升而债务融资有所下降。本文认为,来自市场的需求下降和需求不确定程度的增加这一需求冲击假说相比于融资约束假说更有助于解释金融危机期间上市公司的投融资行为。上述发现对于当前经济增速放缓环境下宏观调控政策选择有一定的现实意义。

On the perspective of demand shocks and financial constraints, this study investigates the capital investment fluctuation of China＇ s Listed Companies during the Financial Crisis. Based on the quarterly data, the results show there is a decline of 19.4% on capital expenditure in post - crisis period compared with those in the pre - crisis period. In addition, the companies with more overseas market businesses reduced more capital investments than the others. At the meantime, the cash holding of these companies is rising and the debt financing is declining. Additionally, there is little evidence indicating a relationship between financial constrain of pre -crisis and the capital investment of current crisis. This study argues that comparing to the financing constraints hypothesis which stems from credit supply shock, demand shocks hypothesis stems from the decline and uncertainty of international market demand is a more appropriate explanation to the listed companies＇ investment and financing behavior during the financial crisis.