吉林省商品粮基地县经济系统脆弱性及驱动因素分析

An Assessment of the Economic System Vulnerability and Research of the Driving Factors of Commodity Grain Base in Jilin Province

以吉林省25个商品粮基地县为研究对象,依据脆弱性理论分析了商品粮基地县经济系统脆弱性的特征,并以此为基础构建了经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,对吉林省商品粮基地县经济系统脆弱性进行评价分析,采用主成分分析法探讨了吉林省商品粮基地县经济系统的驱动因素。研究表明:(1)吉林省商品粮基地县经济系统脆弱性是结构型脆弱性,以低微度和中度为主,占商品粮基地县总数的76%。其中,中度脆弱县有8个,低度脆弱县有10个,微度脆弱性县域1个,占全部县域的44%;重度脆弱县4个,极度脆弱县有2个。(2)吉林省商品粮基地县经济系统脆弱性空间分布特征:中部>西部>东部,重度和极度脆弱县主要分布在中部粮食主产区,低度和微度脆弱县主要分布在东部和西部;(3)吉林省商品粮基地县经济系统脆弱性的驱动因素共有5大类:分别是农民生活水平和农业经济社会发展状况、经济社会支撑能力、地区经济发展能力、农业产业结构状况和农业劳动生产效率。

Taking 25 commodity grain base counties of Jilin province as the research object,this paper analysed vul-nerability of economic system the characteristics of the commodity grain base county which based on the theory ofvulnerability.This paper built up the vulnerability evaluation index system,evaluated vulnerability of economic sys-tem of commodity grain base county of Jilin Province and use principal component analysis（pca）to explore the driv-ing factors of economic system of commodity grain base county.Research shows that：（1）the economic system vulner-ability of commodity grain base county in Jilin province is mainly mild to moderate and frag which is structural vul-nerability,Among them,there are 2 extremely vulnerable counties,4 highly vulnerable counties,8 moderately vulner-able counties,10 slightly vulnerable counties,1 micro vulnerable counties.（2）the spatial distribution features of eco-nomic system vulnerability of commodity grain base county in Jilin Province：the middle distract is higher than thewest distract,the west distract is higher than the east distract,the extremely and highly vulnerable counties are main-ly distributed in major grain producing middle areas,slightly and micro vulnerable counties are mainly distributed inthe east and west areas.（3）there are five driving factors of economic system vulnerability of commodity grain basecounty in Jilin Province：the farmers’ living standard of famers and development of agricultural economy and societysupport of economy and society development ability of regional economy,the condition of agricultural structure andagricultural labor productivity.