水面舰船破损稳性的概率评估方法

A probabilistic method for damage stability assessment of surface combatants

水面舰船生命力的主要影响因素之一是舰船遭遇不同武器破坏下的薄弱性,而薄弱性主要由破损稳性决定。目前,舰船破损稳性评估主要运用确定性方法,但该方法不能全面评估舰船破损稳性。为了更加客观、全面地评估舰船破损稳性,探讨水面舰船破损稳性评估的概率方法,提出变区间线性插值计算残存概率Si的新方法并开发计算程序。以某水面舰船为例,计算各种破损情况的进水概率Pi以及残存概率Si,并累加所有破损情况Pi和Si的乘积,得到分舱指数A。研究表明:通过将分舱指数A作为评估指标并考虑不同武器和碰撞的综合破坏效应,概率方法可以实现水面舰船破损稳性定量且整体的评估,能为舰船初步设计阶段主船体的分舱优化以致提高舰船生命力提供一种解决途径。

One of the main influential factors on the survivability of a surface combatant is its vulnerability to weapon effects, which means that its damage stability determines the vulnerability of a vessel. Currently,a surface combatant＇s damage stability is mainly assessed via the deterministic method,which offers no comprehensive assessment compared with the probabilistic method. This paper discusses the probabilistic method of evaluating the damage stability of a surface combatant,presents a new method named‘variable interval linear interpolation’for the calculation of survival probability,and develops numerical procedures. Taking a certain combatant as an example, through calculating the damage probability Pi and the survival probability Si ,the subdivision index A is obtained by the sum of the product of Pi and Si for each compartment and compartment group. Research shows that,by taking the subdivision index as an evaluation index and considering the damage effects of different weapons and collisions,the probabilistic method can realize a quantitative overall assessment of a surface combatant＇s damage stability, thereby providing a way to increase the survivability of a combatant through the optimization of the hull subdivision in the primary stages of ship design.