基于Theil指数的工业碳排放省域差异性分析——以低碳试点五省为例

Analysis on Provincial Differences in Industrial Carbon Emission based on Theil Index——With Five Low-carbon Pilot Provinces as Example

选取17种能源系数法测算低碳试点五省工业碳排放量,并分析比较了1995-2014年试点五省工业部门的碳排放量、能源结构和碳排放强度。结果表明,试点五省工业碳排放量两极分化较大,广东和辽宁的工业碳排放量要远高于云南和陕西;试点五省工业碳排放强度总体均呈下降趋势,并逐渐减缓,广东和云南分别为碳强度最高和最低省份。运用Theil指数研究试点五省工业碳排放强度差异性,将试点五省分为沿海区域和内陆区域,发现试点五省工业碳排放强度的差异总体呈下降趋势,区域内差异是造成总体差异的主要原因,沿海地区内部差异较大。广东的低碳发展情况在试点五省中处于领先地位,其发展模式具有较好的参考价值。根据研究分析结果,提出节能减排的主要着力点,确保试点五省的低碳发展有效顺利地进行下去,并为全国其他省份做好节能减排路径的带头作用。

Based on analysis and comparison of carbon emissions, energy structure and carbon emission intensity of industrial sectom in five pilot provinces from 1995 to 2014, 17 energy coefficient methods are selected to calculate industrial carbon emission of five pilot provinces. The results show that polarization of industrial carbon emission in the five pilot provinces is relatively large, and the industrial carbon emission in Guangdong and Liaoning are far higher than that in Yunnan and Shaanxi; the industrial carbon emission intensity in five pilot provinces shows a decreasing trend and gradually slows down, and the carbon intensity in Guangdong and Yunnan is relatively the highest and the lowest. By using Theil index to research differences of industrial carbon emission intensity in five pilot provinces and dividing the five pilot provinces into coastal region and inland region, it is found that all differences of industrial carbon emission intensity in five pilot provinces shows a decreasing trend, regional difference is the main cause of the overall difference, and internal difference at coastal region is larger. The low carbon development of Guangdong province is in a leading position in the five pi- lot provinces, and its development model provides a good reference value. According to the research result, attention is paid to energy conservation and emission reduction so as to ensure effective and smooth progress of low-carbon development in the five pilot provinces and play a leading role in the path of energy conservation and emission reduction for other provinces of China.