经济周期与企业现金持有对策分析

Research on Corporate Cash Holdings Based on Business Cycle

在经营过程中,企业的实际现金持有水平会受多种因素的影响而与目标水平发生偏离。企业内部微观因素和外部的宏观经济环境都会影响企业现金持有决策行为。通过对影响我国上市公司现金持有的宏观因素进行分析,实证结果显示我国宏观经济的不确定性导致上市公司出于预防性动机对现金需求量会增大。同时,在后金融危机时期,经营现金净流量越差,现金持有量不足的可能性就越大,上市公司因而具有更强的现金持有调整动机。

In the course of business, the actual cash holding level of enterprises may be affected by many factors and deviate from the target level. Both internal micro- factors and the external macroeconomic environment affect the decision-making behavior of corporate cash holdings. Through the analysis of the macroscopic factors that affect the cash holdings of listed companies in China, the empirical results show that the uncertainty of macroeconomics leads to the increase of the demand for cash from the listed companies for preventive motive. At the same time, in the post- financial crisis period, the worse the operating cash flow, the greater the possibility of cash holdings, and listed companies have a stronger motivation to adjust.