运用空间误差自回归模型研究江苏省地方性氟中毒的影响因素

Study of risk factors of endemic fluorosis in Jiangsu province by spatial autoregressive model

目的运用空间误差自回归模型分析江苏省地方性氟中毒的影响因素。方法利用1982—1985年江苏省地方性氟中毒的调查数据,建立包含当地气象海拔资料的地方性氟中毒的地理信息数据库,采用ArcView进行空间误差自回归分析。结果空间误差自回归模型分析表明水氟浓度与氟斑牙患病率呈正相关(P<0.05),气象和海拔等因素对患病率无影响(P值均>0.05)。模型还提示当地的氟斑牙患病率水平还可能受到其他空间聚集因素的影响。结论江苏省氟斑牙患病率主要受水氟浓度的影响,与气象和海拔因素关系不大,可能还受到其他因素的影响。

Objective To investigate risk factors of endemic fluorosis in Jiangsu province by spatial autoregresslve mouel. Methods A geographic information system（GIS） database including endemic fluorosis, meteorological and altitude data in Jiangsu province was established based on data of endemic fluorosis surveys conducted from 1982 to 1985. Arc View system was used for spatial autoregressive analysis. Results Spatial autoregressive model showed a positive correlation between water fluoride concentration and dental fluorosis incidence in Jiangsu province（P〈0. 05）. No statistical relationship between dental fluorosis incidence and meteorological or altitude factors were observed（all P〉0.05）. The model also indicated dental fluorosis incidence might be affected by other spatial clustering factors. Conclusion Dental fluorosis incidence in Jiangsu province was affected by the water fluoride concentration; it was not affected by meteorological or altitude factors. Other factors might serve as risk factors.