我国家庭债务、消费习惯形成与旅游消费——基于阈值协整关系的研究

Household Debt, Formation of Consumption Habits and Tourism Consumption in China: A Study Based on Threshold Co-integration Relationships

我国家庭债务与旅游消费存在非线性的阈值协整关系。文章使用非线性平滑机制转移函数模型检验了家庭债务等因素对旅游消费的阈值协整效应,发现以下主要结论:一是家庭债务的变化是城镇居民旅游消费变化的原因,随着家庭债务的上升,家庭债务对城镇居民旅游消费的影响是不断变化的。当家庭债务低于阈值时,可以促进城镇居民旅游消费,但是随着家庭债务上升超过阈值时,促进作用转变为抑制作用。城镇居民必需品消费的增加不断增强家庭债务的作用,城镇居民对必需品的消费习惯负向影响旅游消费,可支配收入对城镇居民旅游消费的影响总体为正。二是家庭债务目前还没有影响农村居民的旅游消费,但农村居民的必需品消费和城镇居民旅游消费所起的示范效应对农村居民旅游消费有影响。文章还就如何推动旅游消费做了进一步讨论。

Abstract： With the continuous development of China＇s economy, the amount of people＇s income and consumption has gradually increased, and the concept of consumption has changed too. The changes in consumption have driven changes in the structure of family assets, among which the most significant is the continuous rise of household debt. Thus, household debt has had a notable impact on tourism consumption. Therefore, this article constructs a tourism consumption model formed by consumer habits for the purpose of discussing the impact of household debt on tourism-related consumption, and then introduces a threshold co-integration analysis based on this model, in order to discover the threshold co-integration relationships among household debt, consumer habit formation and tourism consumption in China from a quantitative perspective. Research findings： （1） there is a non-linear threshold co-integration relationship between household debt and tourism consumption in China. Changes in household debt are the cause for the changes in tourism consumption of urban residents. As household debt rises, the impact of household debt on tourism consumption of urban residents constantly changes. When household debt is lower than the threshold, it facilitates tourism consumption of urban residents; however, as household debt rises and exceeds the threshold, the facilitation effect will instead produce an inhibition effect. The increase consumption of necessities of urban residents keeps strengthening the role of household debt. The consumption habits of necessities of urban residents have a negative impact on tourism consumption, and disposable personal income （DPI） has a positive impact on tourism consumption with regards to urban consumption as a whole; （2） household debt has no impact on the tourism consumption of rural residents at present, but the demonstration effect of the necessities consumption of rural residents and the tourism consumption of urban residents influences the tourism consumption of rural residents. The consumption of necessities of rural residents has had a negative impact on the amount they spend on tourism which continues to decline, and accelerates further after exceeding the threshold. The demonstration effect had a limited influence upon the tourism consumption of rural residents before 2009; however, as the tourism consumption of urban residents increased, the demonstration effect became apparent, especially since the 4~ quarter of 2009. Stimulating tourism consumption is an important approach to developing the tourism economy. As family asset structure changes, enough attention should be paid to the effect of the rise of household debt on tourism consumption. This article pointed out with relevant research that, household debt can facilitate the tourism consumption of urban residents within a certain section for the following reasons： on the one hand, household debt is used to purchase bulky goods like houses and cars, and the excess DPI can increase tourism consumption; on the other hand, the development of a financial system makes urban households more and more accepting of the influence of tourism consumption on debt. However, after the household debt of urban residents rises to a certain degree, repayment pressure and the decline of anticipated DPI will turn the facilitation effect into the inhibition effect, but such change mainly depends on the consumption habits of consumers. Though household debt has no impact on the tourism consumption of rural residents at present, with the improvement of the rural financial system and social security system as well as the transfer and reform of rural housing land which has produced the new rural consumption concept, the impact of household debt on the tourism consumption of rural residents will be highlighted. We have also noticed that, the unceasing rise of household debt is undoubtedly related to the changes in the concept of household consumption, and the long-term easy monetary policy of China is a facilitator to make consumption on debt possible. Therefore, from the point of view of household debt, to guide the consumption concept of consumers and to adjust the consumption credit policies of financial institutions are of equal importance. Conclusions in this article are valuable references to rationally control household debt and facilitate tourism consumption.