猪周期、逆选择和我国生猪价格指数保险的发展

Swine Cycle,Adverse Selection and Development of Hog Price Insurance in China

生猪价格指数保险可能成为未来一段时间内我国生猪市场调控的一个重要手段和工具。然而,我国生猪价格存在明显的周期性波动规律。在此情况下,实施生猪目标价格保险会不会产生逆选择问题?如果答案是肯定的,我们又应该采取什么措施来保障生猪价格保险的顺利开展?本文就上述问题进行了一些研究和探讨,提出了完善和创新我国生猪价格指数保险的思路:(1)可改变"目标价格"确定依据,将保险保障价格从"不随时间变化的固定猪粮比价"转变为"随时间变化而变化的预期猪粮比价";(2)如不改变"目标价格"确定依据,则需要创新承保理赔方案,采用"精心选择保险期间"或"一次投保、多次赔付"的策略克服我国生猪价格指数保险可能的逆选择问题。

Hog price insurance has been expected to be an important tool for China to regulate the live pig market over the next decades,but there are obvious and significant cyclical features within the fluctuations of Chinese hog price. Therefore,whether the hog target price insurance in China will face the challenge of adverse selection because the movement of hog price is cyclical but the targeted or refereed price is fixed. If so,how could we ensure the sustainable development of hog price insurance in China？ We discussed these issues,and some innovative ideas to improve Chinese hog price insurance were put forward. The suggestions included using the expected price instead of target price as the trigger of Chinese hog price insurance and adopting the strategies of＂Selected insurance period＂and / or＂Multi-payment within an insurance period＂to overcome the underlying adverse selection problem if following the current operation ways.